Analyst Kingdom

Data-driven notes on African economies, societies, cultures, and overall outlook of the continent

Youth Empowerment: Leaders Create Leaders

Young Africans are increasingly motivated as many innovations are taking place on the continent. Today, the world is so competitive that young Africans must be able to live up to expectations. The most important reform needed on the continent is the creation of an environment that fosters the development of the skills young people need to have a significant competitive edge on the job market. In this respect, mentor-ship is a fundamental component of youth empowerment in Africa.

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Youth Unemployment in Africa

In most African countries, young people continue to be the bulk of the population. Incidentally, many African countries are the most affected by youth unemployment. Africa has the youngest population in the world and these young adults are among the most vulnerable. Each African country follows different trajectories. Economic structures, level of institutional and political stability, and youth development policies affect social and economic growth.

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Top Five Economic Powerhouses in Africa

The 5 largest powerhouses in the African Economy are Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco. These economies feature various levels of diversification and growth. In 2016, they contributed well over 60% (62.24%) to the continent’s overall Gross Domestic Product.

Nigeria: The Largest African Economy

Nigeria overtook South Africa as the largest economy on the continent in 2011. While Nigeria was still holding the title of largest economy in Africa in 2015, the recorded average income per person (GDP Per Capita) in Nigeria is the smallest among the top 5. This has been the case historically as well, leading to question the structural integrity of Nigeria’s economy and its wealth distribution. Nigeria has for a long time been dependent on oil exports. Low oil prices in recent years have led to a decline in economic growth. To remedy the situation, the country’s government has been working to diversify its economy by growing manufacturing and other aspects of its private sector. However, the low GDP per Capita suggests that most Nigerians are not yet benefiting from the diversification effort. As such, more needs to be done to ensure better wealth creation and distribution.

South Africa: A Declining African Economy

South Africa’s economy has been declining since 2011, was still on its downward path in 2015. Historical data shows the steepest decline started from 2011, with decreasing consumption and savings. This hasn’t happened in the country for at least 23 years, and thus points to decreasing income and increasing unemployment in the South African economy. Most of South Africa’s economic issues steam from its government’s poor policy-making, political uncertainty, and high debt burden. Despite being the most industrialized nation on the continent, the poor leadership of South Africa’s government has been driving the country’s economy into the ground these past few years. In 2016, South Africa lost its Number 2 spot to Egypt.

Egypt: A Sluggish African Economy

In 2015, Egypt was the third largest economy in Africa. Though its GDP Per Capita is second to last, household consumption often rivals that of Nigerians and South Africans. This suggests that an increase income has been taking place in the country over the past 10 years. It also implies a decrease in unemployment and higher business growth. Despite the overall positive outlook, savings in the country has been on the lower end of the spectrum in the group. Moreover, Egypt’s growth has been slow in the past 5 years due to the uprisings that shook the country in 2011. The political instability in the following years also contributed to the decline in growth. The government has been implementing economic reforms in order to increase growth and boost investments. In 2016, the country replaced South Africa as the second largest African economy.

Algeria: An Unsteady African Economy

While Algeria’s overall production comes in 4th out of the 5 countries, average GDP per person is only second to South Africa’s. Average savings per individual is also one of the highest in the group. In that sense, Savings per Individual has been second only to Nigeria for the past 7 years. Algeria, like Nigeria, is largely dependent of oil. As such, declining oil prices hit the country’s economy. Most of the growth in the country is driven by public spending as the government has been slow, and at times unwilling to promote the growth and diversification of its private sectors. In order to tackle the looming budget deficit crisis and promote growth, the government has started cutting public spending. It is also planning to improve its stock market and introduce Islamic Finance in order to increase investments in the economic.

Morocco: A Diversified African Economy

Morocco is one of the least performing countries of the top 5 in terms of GDP, Household Consumption and Savings. However, in terms of Income per Person, it has been ahead of Egypt and Nigeria for almost two decades. Despite its lower GDP compared to the other 4 countries, Morocco is one of the most diversified and stable economies of the group. One of the drivers of the economy is Agriculture, which in turn is highly dependent on the level of rainfalls. High levels of rainfalls drove economic growth in 2016. The trend is expected to continue is 2017. Tourism is also an important sector of Morocco’s economy, contributing about 5% of total jobs in the country. Morocco is also one of the countries at the forefront of renewable energy on the continent.

Intra-African Trade and Obstacles to Regional Integration

ECOWAS is a regional economic group binding together 15 West African countries. One of its main goals is to ensure the smooth and free movement of goods, services and member States citizens within the bloc and to improve economic integration. As such, one would expect a significantly higher intra-regional trade volume compared to trade with rest of the world. This is however not the case. Even though it is on the increase direction-ally, it is still significantly lower than merchandise trade with high income economies. In fact, Intra-African trade is the lowest compared to intra-regional trade in other continents.

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ECOWAS Members Feature Varying Levels of Economic Diversification

In the world of Finance and business, investment diversification is a way to ensure long term growth with minimal risks. This is because gains from profitable products offsets losses incurred by non-profitable ones. Even though the same concept applies to a country’s economy, governments find it difficult to follow this well-known rule of the Finance world. This is the case for some of the member States in ECOWAS, which tend to rely mostly on the sale of one particular product when it comes to merchandise export.

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Nigeria: The Elephant in ECOWAS

Nigeria has long been one of the largest economies in Africa. As of 2016, it was well ahead of Egypt and South Africa. Nigeria’s GDP in the ECOWAS regional group is significantly larger than that of all the other member States combined. With its substantial weight, the country is in a unique position to set the course of ECOWAS in particular, and Africa in general for years to come.

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